Growth

Population

                                                                  Estero, CDP, Census.gov

Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth

Originally published in the February 2007 Estero Development Report

The University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) estimates the population of all Florida municipalities and counties as of April 1 each year so that state funding for local governments are apportioned fairly between censuses. BEBR does not make an annual estimate for Estero because Estero is not a municipality, but they have shared with us their procedures so that we could make comparable estimates.

Using their methodology Estero's permanent (full time) population is determined by adding the April 2000 population to the product of the following multiplication: the number of new housing units built and occupied during the intervening year(s) times the occupancy rate times the average persons per household.
 
The 2000 census found that Estero contained 2,737 seasonal housing units, or 37.3% of all housing units. Assuming that Estero's snowbird households are the same size as its full time households (2.06), Estero's seasonal population in April 2000 was 5,638. This assumption is probably too high for seasonal households but the permanent household value is probably low, thus the total population is largely unaffected.  Estero's current snowbird population is estimated by adding 5,638 to the product of the number of new residential units built and occupied by seasonal residents during the intervening years times the average persons per household.
 
Using this methodology Estero's population has increased by 178% during the last five years and nine months.

Each year we estimate the number of housing units to be permitted in each of Estero’s thirty-some residential communities based upon the number of units approved for the community; how many have been built and based upon the earlier permitting experience, how many are likely to be built each year during the next five years. This information is then used to estimate the population growth for each of the next five years. A lower growth estimate, 90% of the annual total, and a higher growth estimate, 110% of the annual total are then developed and used in the following tables.

If Estero realizes the lower growth in estimated housing units the community's population will increase as projected in the following table:

If Estero realizes the higher growth in estimated housing units Estero's population will increase as projected in the following table: 

In conclusion, Estero's population:

• Has grown by 178% since April 1, 2000
• Is projected to increase by 234% to 249% between April 1, 2000 and December 31, 2011 to between 50,600 to 52,900.
• Is expected to grow another 25% to 30% between December 31, 2006 and the end of 2011.

Estero Development Report Articles

• July 2008 - Lee County Population
• November 2007 - Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth
• January 2006 - Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth
• October 2004 - Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth
• February 2004 - Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth