Residential

Residential Development in Estero…Past and Prologue

From the January 2007 EDR

In 1997 Estero was a sleepy little village midway between Ft. Myers and Naples. It had a long and interesting history and about 4,600 households. Then the small, unincorporated Lee County community’s residential growth began as FGCU, the Southwest Florida Regional Airport and Miromar Outlets anchored the area and as fewer large parcels of land close to the Gulf were available for residential development south of Estero the flow of residential reached Estero.

Estero Housing Trends from 2000 to 2005…

In 1998 about 550 housing units were permitted in Estero and the following year that number doubled to 1,150 new housing units. The following table shows how that trend has continued beginning with another doubling of the housing unit permit rate in 2000.

Year	Number of Units Permitted
2000	2,088
2001	2,104
2002	1,500
2003	1,425
2004	1,646
2005	2,833
2006	1,310
Total	12,906

Most of Estero’s residential growth has occurred in large, well planned residential communities initiated by some of the country’s and region’s largest and best developers and home builders…Bonita Bay Group, WCI, U S Homes, Levitt & Sons, Toll Brothers, Colonial now Meritage Homes…to name a few. These developers were able to purchase large parcels of land that allowed them to develop many housing units in a short period of time under very favorable market conditions. Throughout this period only about 20 housing units in Estero were permitted by individual homeowners outside of these planned developments. Those homes are in Old Estero and in the eastern rural areas of the community.

Residential Growth During 2000—2002

Almost three-fourths of the 5,700 units permitted in 2000, 2001 and 2002 were in just three communities…The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound. At that time The Brooks was ranked among the 15 fastest growing residential communities in the U.S. as Bonita Bay permitted over 2,200 housing units in the Brooks during those three years. During the same period Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound each permitted over 900 housing units. Most of the housing permitted and built between 2000 and 2002 was in the southern half of Estero, south of Corkscrew Road.

The build out of these communities and the slowdown caused by 9-11-2001 slowed Estero’s residential development somewhat for a couple of years, but shortly thereafter other major developments and some smaller ones, mostly north of Corkscrew Road, started to take up the slack.

Residential Growth During 2003—2006…

In 2003 five large residential communities replaced The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound as Estero’s residential growth leaders. Together they permitted over 3,850 housing units in the four years from 2003 to 2006. They are Grandezza with about 1,050 units permitted, Bella Terra with about 1,150 units, The Cascades with nearly 700 units, Villagio with over 500 units and Rapallo with about 540 units. Only Bella Terra, whose zoning allows another 650 units, will continue to build many additional housing units in 2007 and beyond.

In addition ten other communities permitted over 200 housing units during the 2003-06 period. They are: The Estero portion of The Colony in Pelican Landing; Rookery Point; Bella Lago; The Reserve of Estero; West Bay Club; Coastal Village; Meadows of Estero; the Residences at Coconut Point; Copper Oaks and Osprey Cove. Together they permitted over 2,700 housing units during this four year period. As a group these communities could add another 1,450 housing units to Estero’s total housing stock if they fully use their zoning authorization.

Finally eleven smaller communities permitted another 1,500 housing units during this four year period. Nine of these eleven communities are nearly sold out.

Thus, thirty-seven residential communities, big and small, have contributed to the nearly 13,000 new housing units permitted in Estero during the last seven years. Twenty four of the thirty seven communities are nearly sold out, while the other thirteen will continue to build during the next few years.

During this four year period Estero’s housing growth shifted north and east. The areas of highest concentration in the 2003-06 period were along Estero Parkway, Three Oaks Parkway and Corkscrew Road east of I-75.

The Next Five Years, 2007 Through 2011…

Sixteen of the thirty seven residential communities that permitted housing units in Estero since 2000 are still under development and are zoned for about 2,100 more housing units that are likely to be permitted during the next five years and another 450 units after 2011.

In addition, there are five communities with zoning for another 1,400 housing units that have not started to develop their land. These developers are likely to seek permits for at least 1,200 housing units between now and 2011.

Finally, there are twelve more residential communities that are seeking some residential zoning. If their applications are approved by the Board of County Commissioners as requested, they would be authorized to build another 3,500 housing units. It is estimated that they could add another 2,300 housing units to Estero’s total by 2011.

The following table summarizes the likely number of housing units to be permitted in Estero during the next five years:

Type of Community	Expected Number of Units
Now Under Development	2,100
Zoned But Not Under Development	1,200
In the Zoning Process	2,300
Total	5,600

While 5,600 additional housing units are substantial, it is far less than the recent rate of nearly 13,000 in about seven years.

Estero will never again see housing development at the rate we experienced in 2005. We estimate that 2007 will be another slow year for permitting new housing units because of the large supply of existing housing units now on the market, including many speculator owned homes. Thereafter the market is likely to greatly improve and our estimates may prove to be conservative.

The good news is that once the twelve proposed communities are zoned and developed there are no more large tracts of land available for housing development in Estero as long as the County continues the present zoning for the Density Reduction Groundwater Recharge (DRGR) area of one home per 10 acres. Most of the land around the existing and planned residential communities along Corkscrew Road east of I-75 is either in the DRGR or is owned by some public agency for conservation.

In conclusion, Estero will have changed from a sleepy little village of 4,600 households in 2000 to a fully developed community with 22,850 households in a little over a decade. Thus the community’s challenge continues to be to expand our infrastructure so that it catches up to our residential and commercial growth. If we do not build the roads, schools, parks and hospitals needed to keep up with all this growth, our quality of life will suffer dramatically.

Estero Development Report Articles

These articles provide comparative statistics on housing units, single family units and their building value as well as commentary on trends. Articles in bold are broader in scope.

REMINDER: The residential building value understates the cost of each residence because it excludes the value of the underlying land.

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