Estero Development Report

Volume 5, Number 9
Issued January 2006

Edited by ECCL--the Estero Council of Community Leaders

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February Opportunities for Citizen Participation
In Protecting Estero's Quality of Life

Index

Estero Community Website

To learn more about Estero and its growth management efforts view the new website of:

Estero Community Planning Panel (ECPP);
Estero Civic Association (ECA);
Estero Design Review Committee (EDRC), and
Estero Council of Community Leaders (ECCL)

www.esterofl.org

The site is still in formation.…Your suggestions for improvement are most welcome.

Stop the Muck

The Ft. Myers News Press has asked us and all others concerned about the ecology of Southwest Florida to widely disseminate the following request:

“Like many in our community, The News-Press Editorial Board has watched with growing anger and frustration as our environment has been used as a sewer for polluted freshwater from Lake Okeechobee. The damage done to natural resources in Southwest Florida was highlighted again Tuesday by a report in The News-Press about the catastrophic threat from explosive algae growth in J.N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel.

The policies of the South Florida Water Management District have been a threat to Lee County's economy and way of life, which are based on a healthy environment. That's why the Editorial Board is making a special effort to "STOP THE MUCK." We are preparing a series of Opinion page pieces leading up to Wednesday's water management board workshop meeting at Florida Gulf Coast University. We will urge our readers to turn out in force for that meeting, armed with "STOP THE MUCK" pages from The News-Press, to put pressure on the board to take radical action to save our environment.

The state has adopted some measures designed to alleviate the situation. But we must keep up the pressure for more change, and to be sure that what is already planned is funded fully and completed as rapidly as possible. Nothing is easier for this powerful agency than to forget about Southwest Florida. An aroused citizenry can help prevent that.

We also have established an online bulletin board at news-press.com/muck where people can register their opinions. Besides sharing them with all readers of news-press.com, people will also be talking directly to water managers. We'll enter the transcripts of the bulletin board into the public record.”

Estero Sets Housing Record in 2005

During December Lee County issued building permits for another 134 housing units in Estero worth $25,417,733 excluding the increased value of the land under those units. The record increase in monthly residential permit value was set in September at nearly $92 million. The major contributors to this month’s permitted units were Rapallo with 59 units and Bella Terra with 40 units.

The following table shows how 2005 compares with the prior five years:

The 2,833 housing units permitted during 2005 exceeds the total units permitted in any prior year by 729 housing units, or 34.6 percent. This year’s permitted units are up 72% from last year.

The total value of these permitted units, excluding land, exceeds the prior record set last year by over $262 million, a 72% increase, and is $30.9 million more than the total for the last two years combined.

The average building value during 2004 and 2005 of $221,655 (excluding land) is 40% higher than the average for the prior four years. This increase is due to the rapid increase in the cost of construction materials, the changing mix in the type of housing units being constructed (more single family and high rise units) along with many other factors. It should be noted that the building cost per unit in 2005 is almost identical to 2004 in spite of the fact that the single family share of total permitted units declined from 59.5% to 46%.

The total value of permitted commercial buildings, exclusive of land, during 2005 equals $111 million, by far the highest amount during this six year period. It is expected that the value of commercial permits will continue to grow in Estero over the next several years. In December, Coconut Point was again the major contributor with building shell and interior outfitting permits totaling $24.1 million.

During December two condominium towers, with a total permitted building value of $129.3 million and containing 236 housing units, were permitted in the City of Bonita Spring. In spite of this surge the City of Bonita Springs trailed Estero by 24% in housing unit value and 29% in the total value of permitted development during 2005.

REMINDER: The residential building value understates the cost of each residence because it excludes the value of the underlying land.

Residential Development in Estero…Past & Prologue

In 1997 Estero was a sleepy little village midway between Ft. Myers and Naples. It had a long and interesting history and about 4,600 households. Then the small, unincorporated Lee County community’s residential growth began as FGCU, the airport and Miromar Outlets anchored the area and fewer large parcels of land close to the Gulf were available for residential development south of Estero.

Estero Housing Trends from 2000 to 2005

In 1998 about 550 housing units were added in Estero and the following year that number doubled to 1,150 new housing units. The following table shows how that trend has continued beginning with another doubling of the housing permit rate in 2000.

Most of Estero’s residential growth has occurred in large, well planned residential communities initiated by some of the country’s and region’s largest and best developers and home builders…Bonita Bay Group, WCI, U S Homes, Levitt & Sons, Toll Brothers, Colonial now Meritage Homes…to name a few. These developers were able to purchase large parcels of land that allowed them to develop many housing units in a short period of time under very favorable market conditions. Throughout this period only about 20 housing units in Estero were permitted by individual homeowners outside of these planned developments. Those homes were in Old Estero and in the eastern rural areas of the community.

Residential Growth during 2000--2002

Almost three-fourths of the 5,700 units permitted in 2000, 2001 and 2002 were in just three communities…The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound. At that time The Brooks was ranked among the 15 fastest growing residential communities in the country as Bonita Bay permitted over 2,200 housing units in the Brooks during that three year period. During the same period Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound each permitted over 900 housing units. Most of the housing permitted and built between 2000 and 2002 was in the southern half of Estero, south of Corkscrew Road.

The build out of these communities and the slowdown caused by 9-11-2001 slowed Estero’s residential development somewhat for a couple of years, but shortly thereafter other major developments and some smaller ones, mostly north of Corkscrew Road, started to take up the slack.

Residential Growth during 2003--2005

In 2003 four large residential communities replaced The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound as Estero’s residential growth leaders. Together they permitted over 2,800 housing units in the three years from 2003 to 2005. They are Grandezza with about 1,000 units permitted, Bella Terra and The Cascades with nearly 700 units each and Villagio with over 500 units. Only Bella Terra, whose zoning allows another 1,150 units, will continue to build many additional housing units in 2006 and beyond.

In addition nine other communities permitted over 200 housing units each during the 2003-05 period. They are: The Estero portion of The Colony in Pelican Landing; Rookery Point; Bella Lago; Rapallo; The Reserve of Estero; West Bay Club; Coastal Village; Meadows of Estero and Osprey Cove. Together they permitted over 2,200 housing units during this three year period. As a group these communities could add another 1,450 housing units to Estero’s total housing stock if they fully use their zoning authorization.

Finally eleven smaller communities permitted another 1,300 housing units during this three year period. Nine of these eleven communities are nearly sold out.

Thus, twenty-seven residential communities, big and small, have contributed to the nearly 11,500 housing unit growth that Estero has experienced during these last six years. Eighteen of the twenty seven communities are nearly sold out, while the other nine will continue to expand during the next few years.

During this three year period Estero’s housing growth shifted north and east. The areas of highest concentration in the 2003-05 period were along Estero Parkway, Three Oaks Parkway and Corkscrew Road east of I-75.

The Next Five Years, 2006 through 2010

Twenty of the twenty seven residential communities that permitted housing units in Estero since 2000 are still under development and are zoned for about 4,100 more housing units that they are likely to permit during the next five years and another 400 units that will likely be permitted after 2010.

In addition, there are six communities with zoning for another 1,650 housing units that have not started to develop their land. If the housing market in Estero continues to be strong, as demonstrated by the 2,833 housing units permitted during 2005, these developers are likely to seek permits for at least 1,400 housing units between now and 2010.

Finally, there are ten more residential communities that are seeking some residential zoning. If their applications are approved by the Board of County Commissioners as requested, they would be authorized to build another 2,400 housing units. It is estimated that they could add another 2,000 housing units to Estero’s total by 2010.

The following table summarizes the likely number of housing units to be permitted in Estero during the next five years:

While 7,500 additional housing units is substantial, it is far less than what has recently been permitted…11,596 in less than six years and 2,833 during 2005.

Estero will never again see housing development at the rate we have experienced this year. Nearly 60% of the 7,500 housing units to be permitted during the next five years will be permitted during the next two years because so many of the units are located in developments that are underway and selling out rapidly. Housing development in Estero in 2008 and beyond will be half of what is was this year and will continue to decline each year thereafter.

The good news is that once the ten proposed communities are zoned and developed there are no more large tracts of land available for housing development in Estero as long as the County continues the present zoning for the Density Reduction Groundwater Recharge (DRGR) area at one home per 10 acres. Most of the land around the existing and planned residential communities along Corkscrew Road east of I-75 is either in the DRGR or is owned by some public agency for preservation.

In conclusion, Estero will have changed from a sleepy little village with 4,600 households to a fully developed community with 23,600 households in a little over a decade. Thus the challenge is still with us...with such growth there is a great need to expand our infrastructure. If we do not build the roads, schools, parks and hospitals needed to keep up with all this growth, our quality of life will suffer drastically.

Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth

The University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) estimates the population of all Florida municipalities and counties as of April 1 each year so that state funding for local governments are apportioned fairly between censuses. BEBR does not make an annual estimate for Estero because Estero is not a municipality, but they have shared with us their procedures so that we could make comparable estimates.

Using this methodology Estero's permanent (full time) population is determined by adding the April 2000 population to the product of the following multiplication: the number of new housing units built and occupied during the intervening year(s) times the occupancy rate times the average persons per household.

The 2000 census found that Estero contained 2,737 seasonal housing units, or 37.3% of all housing units. Assuming that Estero's snowbird households are the same size as its full time households (2.06), Estero's seasonal population in April 2000 was 5,638. This assumption is probably too high for seasonal households but the permanent household value is probably low, thus the total population is largely unaffected. Estero's current snowbird population is estimated by adding 5,638 to the product of the number of new residential units built and occupied by seasonal residents during the intervening years times the average persons per household.

Using this methodology Estero's population has increased by 150% during the last five years and nine months.

If Estero realizes the lower growth in housing units estimated in the prior section the community's population will increase as projected in the following table:

If Estero realizes the higher growth in housing units estimated in the prior section Estero's population will increase as projected in the following table:

In conclusion, Estero's population:

• Has grown by 150% since April 1, 2000

• Is projected to increase by 244% to 265% between April 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010 to between 52,000 to 55,000.

• Is expected to grow another 37% to 45% between December 31, 2005 and the end of 2010.

Commercial Projects Under Construction in Estero

Until 2005 over 90% of the value of Estero's development has consisted of new housing units. In the late 1990's Estero's commercial development was launched by the Miromar Factory Outlets Mall and Tico (now Germaine) Arena and the much smaller Corkscrew Village Shopping Center. In 2001 the Hyatt Corporation opened the Hyatt Coconut Point Resort and Spa. Until now these have been Estero's commercial anchors.

As the following table indicates in 2004 and 2005 twenty-seven commercial projects began construction in Estero. As the table indicates there are nine major developments containing many parcels and projects that have one or more projects under construction. Once these developments prepare their sites each of the projects within them typically get underway within a year or two.

In addition there are several major projects that will soon be getting underway and will be completed in 2006 or 2007. They are:

• Phase Five of the Miromar Outlets Mall will soon begin construction and is expected to be completed late this year,
• Estero Town Commons, a major shopping center on the southeast corner of Three Oaks and Corkscrew Road, will soon begin site preparation. When that is complete, construction will begin on two small store buildings along Three Oaks Parkway containing 25,000 square feet and the 168,000 square foot Lowe’s store at the rear of the property. Both are expected to open for business late this year, and
• Coconut Crossings, formerly Coconut Road CPD, located on the northwest corner of US 41 and Coconut Road is expected to begin site preparation later this year with several projects likely to begin construction before the end of 2006.
  

Coconut Point Progress Report

Coconut Point consists of much more than the Coconut Point Town Center shopping area. It includes the entire 500 acres along the east side of US 41 between the Sanibel Steakhouse on the south end to Williams Road on the north, including the Rapallo community.

Coconut Point is the brainchild of Oakbrook Properties, a Chicago area land developer, that earlier developed Spanish Wells and other southwest Florida properties. The entire 500 acres were zoned in 2002 and are all subject to an extensive, 87 page, set of appearance standards. Planning for the project divided the development into three planning areas:

• The South Village located between the Bonita Springs city line and Coconut Road,
• The Town Center located between Coconut Road and the Halfway Creek floway, about midway between Coconut and Williams Road, and
• The North Village located between the Halfway Creek floway and Williams Road.

The following summarizes the recent changes in each of these planning areas:

The South Village

On January 11th Ned Dewhirst of Oakbrook Properties updated the EDRC and the community on recent developments affecting the South and North Villages. Recent South Village changes include:

• The infrastructure for the South Village has been under construction for about 6 months. This consists of the Pelican Colony Blvd Extension from US 41 to Via Coconut Point (formerly called Sandy Lane) and the associated utilities/drainage improvements; the perimeter buffering/landscaping; the onsite lakes and the backbone surface water management system.
• Via Coconut Point is under construction from Coconut Road to Pelican Colony Boulevard, with anticipated completion by August 2006, the same date that the Pelican Colony Boulevard extension is expected to be completed.
• American Land Ventures LLC is proposing to develop the land along the eastern boundary of the property with 224 multi-family units in a series of two story buildings. This land is located Between Via Coconut Point and Spring Run in the Brooks. The Coconut Point Design Review Authority (DRA) for the South Village has approved the development plans for this project, which are currently under review by SFWMD and Lee County. They will be presented to the EDRC at their February meeting.
• Centrum-Estero Limited Partnership is proposing to develop 200 Assisted Living units on property located on the southwest corner of the intersection of Via Coconut Point and Pelican Colony Boulevard. The Coconut Point South Village DRA has approved their preliminary plans, with final review/approval to be completed prior to the Lee County Development Order submittal. This project will also be presented to the EDRC in February.
• Regency Centers is proposing to develop a 32,500 square feet general retail center on a site located on the south side of Coconut Road between Via Coconut Road and the entrance to The Brooks Commerce Center. The Coconut Point South Village DRA has approved their preliminary plans, with final review/approval to be completed prior to the Lee County DO submittal. The developers of this parcel are also expected to make a presentation to the EDRC soon.
• Lee Memorial has purchased 22 acres in the area west of Via Coconut Point and north of Pelican Colony Boulevard for possible future use as a hospital site.
• In addition negotiations are underway for the sale of a parcel along US 41 between Pelican Colony Boulevard and the Sanibel Steakhouse for development of an office building and just north of Pelican Colony Boulevard along US 41 for development of a small retail center.

The North Village

Recent North Village changes include:

• The infrastructure for the North Village has been completed. This generally consists of the fire station entrance road and the main entrance to Rapallo; most of the internal ring road around Rapallo along with associated utilities/drainage; perimeter buffering/landscaping; the majority of onsite lakes and the backbone surface water management system.
• Approximately 100 units have been completed in Rapallo with another 140 units under construction.
• The Halfway Creek wetland flow way restoration has been completed and an ongoing monitoring program has been put in place.
• Via Coconut Point construction, from Coconut Road to Williams Road, is well underway, with anticipated completion by April.
• The Estero Fire Station is open and operating.
• The Community Bank has purchased the parcel between the Fire Station and US 41 in order to construct a bank on that site.

The Town Center

Construction is underway in all three sections of the Coconut Point Town Center…The Market on the north end; The Lakefront in the center and The Village at the south end. The Market, which will consist of thirteen large retailers, is furthest along with some of the stores planning to open this spring. The major stores in The Market (from west to east) will be:

• Best Buy
• Rug Décor
• Office Max
• PetSmart
• Sports Authority
• TJMaxx
• Zales
• Payless Shoes
• Old Navy
• Bed Bath & Beyond
• Ross
• Lane Bryant
• Famous Footwear

Construction has begun on two of the six buildings that will surround the 14 acre lake in the Lakefront section. Six of the seven announced Lakefront tenants are restaurants.

Construction is now underway on five of the nine buildings in the Village. The three largest users in this area now underway are the Muvico 16-screen Theater, the 190,000 square foot Dillards and the Barnes & Noble bookstore.

During the last week in January the Simon Property Group, developer of the Coconut Point Town Center, announced 17 additional tenants for the development. Some of the new names are:

• Hair Cuttery
• Sports Clips
• Sprint
• Cingular
• Barnie’s Coffee
• Marble Slab Creamery
• Men’s Warehouse
• Zales Jewelry
• Gamestop n’ Movies, Too
• The Buckle
• West Elm
• Rug Décor
• West Coast Surf Shop
• TGI Friday’s
• Florida Gulf Bank
• Wachovia Bank

Thus far a total of 74 stores have been announced for the Town Center. When completed Coconut Point Town Center will house about 140 stores.

Press reports indicate that 195 of 210 condominiums in Phase One of the Residences of Coconut Point, also located in the Town Center, and were under contract within 20 days of the opening of sales on December 16, 2005. Phase Two, about 70 condos to be located above the stores along the east side of the Village’s Main Street, are expected to become available for purchase in 90 to 120 days.

In addition the Coconut Point Town Center will contain 43 office condos that will be located above the stores along the west side of the Village’s Main Street. They are now being marketed by Premier Commercial Properties in Bonita Springs.

View an Exciting Video of Simon’s Plans for the Coconut Point Town Center on the web at www.coconutpointretail.com

Coconut Crossing

During the summer of 2005 JED Development purchased the 46 acre site on the northwest corner of US 41 and Coconut Road where Wal-Mart tried unsuccessfully to locate a superstore.
JED has a reputation for developing high end, Mediterranean style commercial complexes.

Locally they developed the Sanibel Steakhouse and the office building that surrounds it and have been developing Corkscrew Palms for about two years. Corkscrew Palms is located on the south side of Corkscrew Road just east of the entrance to the Estero Community Park. It presently consists of three single story commercial buildings up close to Corkscrew and two multistory office buildings behind them. JED also is developing an attractive commercial park on the northwest corner of Airport Pulling and Vanderbilt Road in North Naples.

The ECCL’s Coconut Wal-Mart Committee met with JED on January 27th to discuss their plans for the site, the adjacent communities’ continuing concerns about the loose mid-90s zoning of the site and the Coconut-US 41 intersection improvements that JED must make pursuant to a Concurrency and Development Order issued by the County in 2003.

The existing zoning on the site includes 8 retail parcels consisting of 7 outlots ranging in size from 1.27 acres to 2.5 acres and a 13.4 acre parcel surrounded by those out parcels. The final 11.2 acre parcel at the rear of the property has been sold by JED to a housing developer with plans to construct 142 multi-family units in three story buildings.

The existing zoning also requires the following:

• 7.67 acres of indigenous preserve must be provided when commercial development is combined with residential development as is planned by JED…most of it separates the development from the adjacent communities of Marsh Landing and Coconut Shores,
• “plant an enhanced vegetative buffer, within a 15 foot wide strip along the western property boundary, that will reach a minimum height of 8 feet within two years of the date of planting, and provide a 75 percent opacity when viewed at right angles from adjacent property.”
• “site identification signs, building identification signs, and directory signs must be architecturally integrated and compatible with the project’s building design and color” on all the commercial parcels.
• “Prior to the issuance of a local development order for any portion of the project fronting on Coconut Road and US 41…the developer must provide a covenant running with the land showing a consistent architectural theme and landscaping design within the project.”
• “The hotel/motel component…is limited to a maximum of 150 units.”
  

In addition the existing Development Order on the property requires the following:

• A 25 foot right-of-way reservation along the north side of Coconut Road for widening its intersection with US 41.
• “The proposed (Coconut Road) improvements must correct the lane offset, improve intersection operation, and provide for the ability of the signal to run concurrent duel lefts on the east to north and west to south legs of the intersection.”
• “ A buffering area is required along the entire perimeter of the proposed development whenever the proposed development abuts a different use….Prior to the issuance of a Certificate of Compliance for the infrastructure, the buffers must be installed along the road right of ways and the northern property line as shown on the landscaping plans.”

The members of the Committee discussed the following permitted uses and limitations with JED:

• Their plans for gas station/convenience store and fast food restaurants. JED said they had rejected some of these users and had no plans for any of these uses on the property.
• The community’s consistent request of all developer to design their drive-throughs so that the queuing is at the rear of the property rather than next to the surrounding roadways.
• Asked the developer to present his landscape plan for the perimeter of the property to the EDRC for their review and approval as soon as possible.
• JED indicated that the appearance standards for the development are under development and they agreed to present them to the EDRC in March,
• JED agreed that they would not use the 75 foot height authorized for all eight retail parcels. They agreed that the buildings on these parcels would not exceed two stories except for a possible “Garden Hotel” that might be located on two Coconut Road out parcels. This facility would probably not exceed three stories, or about 45 feet.
• The Committee pointed out that the Development Order for each parcel would be subject to the County Land Development Code provisions of the recently adopted US 41 Overlay District.

JED indicated that Orion Bank and Community Bank have purchased two of the outlots. CVS has purchased the corner outlot and has plans for a drug store and a second smaller building. JED plans to retain ownership of the large retail parcel. JED agreed that none of these users would present their plans to the EDRC until JED’s appearance standards have been adopted and their design review committee has reviewed and approved the architecture, landscaping and site plan for each project.

JED’s traffic engineers indicated that Coconut Road would be widened to six lanes east of the Coconut Road entrance to the property and would taper to two lanes at the west end of the property. This modification would align the west side of Coconut Road with the existing configuration on the east side exiting from The Brooks, thus permitted the signalization to be changed from a three phase system to a two phase system, where vehicles entering the intersection from both the east and west could make left turns at the same time. The western approach to US 41 on Coconut Road would consist of four east bound lanes…two left turn lanes, one through-lane and one through/right turn lane. Vehicles traveling west on Coconut from the intersection would have two lanes, one through lane and another that would turn right into Coconut Crossings.

At present the 60% design of this intersection improvement has been completed. It is expected that County and State approval of these plans will occur in March or April, after which construction contracting can begin.

Vintage Trace

The plan for the Vintage Trace development proposes a 19,220 square foot strip shopping center including eleven small stores on 2.4 acres located just south of the entrance to The Vines behind the existing home furnishings store.

When the developer first met with the EDRC in December the Committee made many comments and suggestions (see last month’s report) including a meeting with The Vines Community Association.

When the developer returned to the EDRC on January 11th, the Committee made the following additional suggestions:

• Replace the chain link fence next to The Vines with an 8 foot concrete wall,
• Made approving comments regarding the undulation of the front walls of the building and the hip-roof towers above the rear double doors,
• Urged the developer to change to a Mediterranean style tile roof,
• Add some 14 to 24 foot palms at the rear of the building.

The EDRC declined to support a variance from the 8 foot wall requirement.

Estero Shoppes

This 5.3 acre development is located on the northeast corner of Broadway and US 41. The developer plans to locate three buildings totaling 45,000 square feet on the site including a 5,000 square foot Rick Johnson’s tire store, a 24 bay, 35,700 square foot strip center and a 4,400 square foot storage building. The property is irregular and wraps around the present post office site.

When the developer first presented the development to the EDRC in December the Committee made many comments and suggestions (see last month’s report). The Committee approved of the following changes proposed by the developer:

• Added landscaping around the tire store on the northwest corner of the property,
• Moving the dumpster to the rear of the property and the addition of another dumpster by the tire store,
• Increased undulation and architectural detail that was added to the front of the main building,

In addition the Committee recommended that the sloped roof parapet be extended along the entire south side of the building.