Estero Development Report

Volume 5, Number 9
Issued January 2006

Edited by ECCL--the Estero Council of Community Leaders

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February Opportunities for Citizen Participation
In Protecting Estero's Quality of Life

Index

Estero Community Website

To learn more about Estero and its growth management efforts view the new website of:

Estero Community Planning Panel (ECPP);
Estero Civic Association (ECA);
Estero Design Review Committee (EDRC), and
Estero Council of Community Leaders (ECCL)

www.esterofl.org

The site is still in formation.…Your suggestions for improvement are most welcome.

Stop the Muck

The Ft. Myers News Press has asked us and all others concerned about the ecology of Southwest Florida to widely disseminate the following request:

“Like many in our community, The News-Press Editorial Board has watched with growing anger and frustration as our environment has been used as a sewer for polluted freshwater from Lake Okeechobee. The damage done to natural resources in Southwest Florida was highlighted again Tuesday by a report in The News-Press about the catastrophic threat from explosive algae growth in J.N. "Ding" Darling National Wildlife Refuge on Sanibel.

The policies of the South Florida Water Management District have been a threat to Lee County's economy and way of life, which are based on a healthy environment. That's why the Editorial Board is making a special effort to "STOP THE MUCK." We are preparing a series of Opinion page pieces leading up to Wednesday's water management board workshop meeting at Florida Gulf Coast University. We will urge our readers to turn out in force for that meeting, armed with "STOP THE MUCK" pages from The News-Press, to put pressure on the board to take radical action to save our environment.

The state has adopted some measures designed to alleviate the situation. But we must keep up the pressure for more change, and to be sure that what is already planned is funded fully and completed as rapidly as possible. Nothing is easier for this powerful agency than to forget about Southwest Florida. An aroused citizenry can help prevent that.

We also have established an online bulletin board at news-press.com/muck where people can register their opinions. Besides sharing them with all readers of news-press.com, people will also be talking directly to water managers. We'll enter the transcripts of the bulletin board into the public record.”

Estero Sets Housing Record in 2005

During December Lee County issued building permits for another 134 housing units in Estero worth $25,417,733 excluding the increased value of the land under those units. The record increase in monthly residential permit value was set in September at nearly $92 million. The major contributors to this month’s permitted units were Rapallo with 59 units and Bella Terra with 40 units.

The following table shows how 2005 compares with the prior five years:

The 2,833 housing units permitted during 2005 exceeds the total units permitted in any prior year by 729 housing units, or 34.6 percent. This year’s permitted units are up 72% from last year.

The total value of these permitted units, excluding land, exceeds the prior record set last year by over $262 million, a 72% increase, and is $30.9 million more than the total for the last two years combined.

The average building value during 2004 and 2005 of $221,655 (excluding land) is 40% higher than the average for the prior four years. This increase is due to the rapid increase in the cost of construction materials, the changing mix in the type of housing units being constructed (more single family and high rise units) along with many other factors. It should be noted that the building cost per unit in 2005 is almost identical to 2004 in spite of the fact that the single family share of total permitted units declined from 59.5% to 46%.

The total value of permitted commercial buildings, exclusive of land, during 2005 equals $111 million, by far the highest amount during this six year period. It is expected that the value of commercial permits will continue to grow in Estero over the next several years. In December, Coconut Point was again the major contributor with building shell and interior outfitting permits totaling $24.1 million.

During December two condominium towers, with a total permitted building value of $129.3 million and containing 236 housing units, were permitted in the City of Bonita Spring. In spite of this surge the City of Bonita Springs trailed Estero by 24% in housing unit value and 29% in the total value of permitted development during 2005.

REMINDER: The residential building value understates the cost of each residence because it excludes the value of the underlying land.

Residential Development in Estero…Past & Prologue

In 1997 Estero was a sleepy little village midway between Ft. Myers and Naples. It had a long and interesting history and about 4,600 households. Then the small, unincorporated Lee County community’s residential growth began as FGCU, the airport and Miromar Outlets anchored the area and fewer large parcels of land close to the Gulf were available for residential development south of Estero.

Estero Housing Trends from 2000 to 2005

In 1998 about 550 housing units were added in Estero and the following year that number doubled to 1,150 new housing units. The following table shows how that trend has continued beginning with another doubling of the housing permit rate in 2000.

Most of Estero’s residential growth has occurred in large, well planned residential communities initiated by some of the country’s and region’s largest and best developers and home builders…Bonita Bay Group, WCI, U S Homes, Levitt & Sons, Toll Brothers, Colonial now Meritage Homes…to name a few. These developers were able to purchase large parcels of land that allowed them to develop many housing units in a short period of time under very favorable market conditions. Throughout this period only about 20 housing units in Estero were permitted by individual homeowners outside of these planned developments. Those homes were in Old Estero and in the eastern rural areas of the community.

Residential Growth during 2000--2002

Almost three-fourths of the 5,700 units permitted in 2000, 2001 and 2002 were in just three communities…The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound. At that time The Brooks was ranked among the 15 fastest growing residential communities in the country as Bonita Bay permitted over 2,200 housing units in the Brooks during that three year period. During the same period Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound each permitted over 900 housing units. Most of the housing permitted and built between 2000 and 2002 was in the southern half of Estero, south of Corkscrew Road.

The build out of these communities and the slowdown caused by 9-11-2001 slowed Estero’s residential development somewhat for a couple of years, but shortly thereafter other major developments and some smaller ones, mostly north of Corkscrew Road, started to take up the slack.

Residential Growth during 2003--2005

In 2003 four large residential communities replaced The Brooks, Stoneybrook and Pelican Sound as Estero’s residential growth leaders. Together they permitted over 2,800 housing units in the three years from 2003 to 2005. They are Grandezza with about 1,000 units permitted, Bella Terra and The Cascades with nearly 700 units each and Villagio with over 500 units. Only Bella Terra, whose zoning allows another 1,150 units, will continue to build many additional housing units in 2006 and beyond.

In addition nine other communities permitted over 200 housing units each during the 2003-05 period. They are: The Estero portion of The Colony in Pelican Landing; Rookery Point; Bella Lago; Rapallo; The Reserve of Estero; West Bay Club; Coastal Village; Meadows of Estero and Osprey Cove. Together they permitted over 2,200 housing units during this three year period. As a group these communities could add another 1,450 housing units to Estero’s total housing stock if they fully use their zoning authorization.

Finally eleven smaller communities permitted another 1,300 housing units during this three year period. Nine of these eleven communities are nearly sold out.

Thus, twenty-seven residential communities, big and small, have contributed to the nearly 11,500 housing unit growth that Estero has experienced during these last six years. Eighteen of the twenty seven communities are nearly sold out, while the other nine will continue to expand during the next few years.

During this three year period Estero’s housing growth shifted north and east. The areas of highest concentration in the 2003-05 period were along Estero Parkway, Three Oaks Parkway and Corkscrew Road east of I-75.

The Next Five Years, 2006 through 2010

Twenty of the twenty seven residential communities that permitted housing units in Estero since 2000 are still under development and are zoned for about 4,100 more housing units that they are likely to permit during the next five years and another 400 units that will likely be permitted after 2010.

In addition, there are six communities with zoning for another 1,650 housing units that have not started to develop their land. If the housing market in Estero continues to be strong, as demonstrated by the 2,833 housing units permitted during 2005, these developers are likely to seek permits for at least 1,400 housing units between now and 2010.

Finally, there are ten more residential communities that are seeking some residential zoning. If their applications are approved by the Board of County Commissioners as requested, they would be authorized to build another 2,400 housing units. It is estimated that they could add another 2,000 housing units to Estero’s total by 2010.

The following table summarizes the likely number of housing units to be permitted in Estero during the next five years:

While 7,500 additional housing units is substantial, it is far less than what has recently been permitted…11,596 in less than six years and 2,833 during 2005.

Estero will never again see housing development at the rate we have experienced this year. Nearly 60% of the 7,500 housing units to be permitted during the next five years will be permitted during the next two years because so many of the units are located in developments that are underway and selling out rapidly. Housing development in Estero in 2008 and beyond will be half of what is was this year and will continue to decline each year thereafter.

The good news is that once the ten proposed communities are zoned and developed there are no more large tracts of land available for housing development in Estero as long as the County continues the present zoning for the Density Reduction Groundwater Recharge (DRGR) area at one home per 10 acres. Most of the land around the existing and planned residential communities along Corkscrew Road east of I-75 is either in the DRGR or is owned by some public agency for preservation.

In conclusion, Estero will have changed from a sleepy little village with 4,600 households to a fully developed community with 23,600 households in a little over a decade. Thus the challenge is still with us...with such growth there is a great need to expand our infrastructure. If we do not build the roads, schools, parks and hospitals needed to keep up with all this growth, our quality of life will suffer drastically.

Estero's Recent and Projected Population Growth

The University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) estimates the population of all Florida municipalities and counties as of April 1 each year so that state funding for local governments are apportioned fairly between censuses. BEBR does not make an annual estimate for Estero because Estero is not a municipality, but they have shared with us their procedures so that we could make comparable estimates.

Using this methodology Estero's permanent (full time) population is determined by adding the April 2000 population to the product of the following multiplication: the number of new housing units built and occupied during the intervening year(s) times the occupancy rate times the average persons per household.

The 2000 census found that Estero contained 2,737 seasonal housing units, or 37.3% of all housing units. Assuming that Estero's snowbird households are the same size as its full time households (2.06), Estero's seasonal population in April 2000 was 5,638. This assumption is probably too high for seasonal households but the permanent household value is probably low, thus the total population is largely unaffected. Estero's current snowbird population is estimated by adding 5,638 to the product of the number of new residential units built and occupied by seasonal residents during the intervening years times the average persons per household.

Using this methodology Estero's population has increased by 150% during the last five years and nine months.

If Estero realizes the lower growth in housing units estimated in the prior section the community's population will increase as projected in the following table:

If Estero realizes the higher growth in housing units estimated in the prior section Estero's population will increase as projected in the following table:

In conclusion, Estero's population:

• Has grown by 150% since April 1, 2000

• Is projected to increase by 244% to 265% between April 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010 to between 52,000 to 55,000.

• Is expected to grow another 37% to 45% between December 31, 2005 and the end of 2010.

Commercial Projects Under Construction in Estero

Until 2005 over 90% of the value of Estero's development has consisted of new housing units. In the late 1990's Estero's commercial development was launched by the Miromar Factory Outlets Mall and Tico (now Germaine) Arena and the much smaller Corkscrew Village Shopping Center. In 2001 the Hyatt Corporation opened the Hyatt Coconut Point Resort and Spa. Until now these have been Estero's commercial anchors.

As the following table indicates in 2004 and 2005 twenty-seven commercial projects began construction in Estero. As the table indicates there are nine major developments containing many parcels and projects that have one or more projects under construction. Once these developments prepare their sites each of the projects within them typically get underway within a year or two.