Estero Development Report

Volume 2, Number 7
Issued November 2002

Edited by ECCO--the Estero Concerned Citizens Organization
For further information, to provide information or to add names to our mailing list, Email Don Eslick at doneslick@worldnet.att.net or call him at 949-4050

Estero Development Activities during December 2002

December Opportunities for Citizen Participation In Protecting Estero's Quality of Life

Date	Time	Event	Location
Tuesday, Dec. 3^rd	6 p.m.	Roadway Landscape Advisory Committee Meeting--begin consideration of 2002-03 roadway landscaping funding competition including Koreshan Boulevard	County Community Development Building, Conference Room 3A, 1500 Monroe Street, Ft. Myers
Monday, Dec. 9th	2 p.m.	Estero Civic Association Meeting	Riverwoods Plantation--north side of Broadway & west of US 41
Tuesday, Dec. 10^th	6:00 p.m.	Estero Community Planning Panel Meeting	South County Regional Library
Saturday, Dec. 14^th	10 a.m.	Annexation--Incorporation Meeting	Estero High School
Monday, Dec. 16^th	2 p.m.	Legislative Delegation State Issues Hearing in Anticipation of the 2003 Legislative Session	County Commission Chambers, 2120 Main Street, 2^nd Floor, Ft. Myers
Wednesday, Dec. 18^th	2 p.m.	Estero Council of Community Leaders Meeting on pending community issues.	Marsh Landing Clubhouse

Threatened Bonita Annexation
and Estero Incorporation

Legislative Delegation Meeting

On December 16^th our legislative delegation will hold a public hearing on local issues that citizens and groups think the legislative delegation should address during the Spring 2003 legislative session. Four years ago at a similar session representatives of Estero convinced the legislative delegation to exclude any of the Estero Fire Rescue District from Bonita Springs boundaries and to add an annexation moratorium to the Charter of the City of Bonita Springs preventing any annexation of territory included in the Estero Fire Rescue District by the City of Bonita Springs for a period of five years from the date Bonita became a city. That moratorium expires on December 31, 2004.

It is the expiration of this moratorium in about two years and the fear that the City of Bonita Springs will then attempt to annex the attractive and tax rich areas of The Brooks, the northern end of Pelican Landing, the Hyatt Coconut Point Resort and the newly approved Coconut Point development and its Town Center regional shopping facility that has fueled the effort by some in Estero to incorporation before the end of 2004.

This fear has been heightened by statements Bonita Springs' officials have made concerning the two mile municipal buffer requirement in state law. Audrey Vance, attorney for the City of Bonita Springs, indicates that the City has discussed the issue and has decided that it will object to any effort by Estero to incorporate territory within two miles of its municipal boundaries.

The Two Mile Municipal Buffer

The Formation of Municipalities Act (Chapter 165, Florida Statutes) provides that a charter for incorporation of a municipality shall be adopted only by a special act of the Legislature upon determination that the standards included in the law are satisfied. One of the five standards included in that Act states that the proposed municipality must have a minimum distance of any part of the area proposed for incorporation from the boundaries of an existing municipality within the county of at least 2 miles or have an extraordinary natural boundary which requires separate municipal government. We have been told that this provision has frequently been waived when the local legislative delegation supports such a waiver. In fact when the City of Bonita Springs was incorporated the two mile buffer provision was waived with respect to the City of Fort Myers Beach and the Bonita Springs boundary was permitted to extend to the southern boundary of Fort Myers Beach. However in that case, the City of Fort Myers Beach did not object to this incursion into their two mile buffer.

Save Estero Application for Incorporation Referendum

According to press reports, the "Save Estero" organization will present an "application for incorporation referendum" to the legislative delegation at their public hearing on December 16^th. Based upon statements included in the preliminary feasibility study produced by that organization the boundaries of the area to be incorporated would approximately extend from the Bonita Springs northern boundary to Koreshan Boulevard and from Estero Bay to the eastern boundary of the proposed Habitat development. If that is the case, the legislative delegation will be asked not only to initiate an incorporation bill but also to support waiver of the two mile buffer requirement of Florida law over the objection of the affected municipality (the City of Bonita Springs).

Moratorium Extension Alternative

An alternative to this approach would be to ask the legislative delegation to support the extension of the annexation moratorium for another 5 years, or to use their good offices to persuade the City of Bonita Springs to extend the moratorium by charter amendment or by ordinance. This would provide the breathing room necessary for this important decision to be made by citizens of Estero when it is more fully developed. As indicated elsewhere in this Report, the population of Estero is expected to grow by about 50%, or another 8,000 permanent residents, during the next 5 years.

The Current Estero- Lee County Relationship

Except as a defensive measure against a raid on Estero land by the City of Bonita Springs, the need for Estero to incorporate at this time is unclear. As readers of this report know, the Board of County Commissioners and Lee County staff in recent years has been exceptionally responsive to Estero's needs and supportive of our efforts to manage our rapid growth. Just during the last two years the county has:

Adopted a community plan for Estero that is more extensive than any other community plan in southwest Florida. The Estero Community plan:

Creates a vision for the community in the county comprehensive plan; and
Establishes policies for the county to follow, that will influence all future Estero development decisions; and
Requires all developers to hold a public hearing in the community before they can seek the approval of the county to zone the property-- and either to accept the community's recommendations or explain why they chose to ignore them.

Provided a grant of $25,000 to the Estero Community Planning Panel (ECPP) permitting them to hire a professional planner to help develop County Land Development Code amendments that legally specify what developers can and cannot do with developments in Estero.
Approved a series of Land Development Code changes developed by the ECPP. Those changes:

Establish higher appearance standards for Estero gas stations and convenience stores than any place else in Lee County. About 20 additional requirements have been included in the Estero Community Plan, including the banning of striped canopies and garish bright lights on new Estero gas stations and convenience stores.

Require all new commercial and retail developments adjacent to existing or planned residential properties to provide either: (a) a 20 foot wide buffer with 10 trees and 30 shrubs per 100 feet and an 8 foot high solid wall, or (b) a fifty foot wide buffer with 15 trees per 100 feet and a double row hedge to be maintained at 60 inches in height. This provision will prove to be especially helpful to the residents of Marsh Landing, Fountain Lakes and Pelican Sound.

Created an "Overlay District" for Corkscrew Road requiring that new developments along this roadway satisfy detailed "Main Street" appearance standards that will bring all buildings close to the street with parking in the rear. All buildings must be architecturally compatible with one another; be linked by walkways and have shared parking and open areas for the public, wherever possible.

Permitted Estero to be the first community on the west coast of Florida to establish a Community Appearance Committee to review all detailed development plans of developers prior to their being considered for county approval. The committee has established its procedures and will soon be reviewing proposed projects.

Both the Land Development Code changes and the Community Appearance Committee review will cause properties that were zoned during the 1980's and early 1990's including "bubble plans" to be far more compatible than they otherwise would have been. The developers of these properties retain the right to build projects that we as a community would not like to see on those sites, but their appearance will be much improved and they will have much less impact on their neighbors than in any other area of the county.
The ECPP has provided a forum for conducting the public meetings required of all developers seeking zoning for new projects in Estero. These meetings have truly been public meetings. Anyone in attendance can ask questions of the developers and make comments about the proposed project to them. The meetings are usually attended by about 50 to 75 Estero residents. The developer is required to provide county zoning staff with a report on all the issues that were raised at the meeting. In addition, if Estero residents object to features of the zoning request they may also voice their objections before the Hearing Examiner and also when it comes before the BOCC for final approval.
Since it was established about a year ago, the ECPP has sponsored community meetings on about 15 zoning requests. The quality of the development proposals presented to the ECPP has improved because the developer knows he must deal with the community and adhere to the provisions of the Estero Community Plan and the Estero Land Development Code. In addition, because these meetings take place early in the development process most developers have shown a willingness to make changes in order to obtain community support for their project.
Approved, at the request of the Estero community, a $2 million appropriation for roadway landscaping in the County. Nearly $600,000 of that amount will be used to increase the number of trees to be planted next year on the median and along the roadside of Corkscrew Road between US 41 and the Corkscrew Woodlands development and on Three Oaks Parkway between Corkscrew and Williams Road. Under existing programs the County was already planning to spend about $350,000 on trees and sod in the median of these roads next year, thus the total will now be about $950,000.
Another $300,000 of the $2 million may be allocated by the County to increase the number of trees planted in the median of Koreshan Boulevard late next year, assuming the partnering agreement between the County and the major property owners along Koreshan permit that road to successfully compete with other communities for funding under a county program for roadway landscaping of existing roads.
Advanced the Florida Department of Transportation $60,000 for roadway landscape design of US 41 between the Bonita Springs boundary and Corkscrew Road to be started now. That would allow the landscaping to by installed in late 2004 or early 2005, rather than two years later when the state funding would become available.
Negotiated an agreement with the property owners along Ben Hill Griffin Parkway to install enhance roadway landscaping along that road from Estero's northern boundary to Corkscrew Road and along Corkscrew Road between Ben Hill Griffin and I-75. This work will be completed in 2003.
Cooperated with Estero's community organizations, representatives of the residential communities surrounding the Coconut Point regional shopping development and the owners and developers of this 500 acre site to delay the opening of this major facility by 20 months. This was necessary to allow the area road network to better handle the increased traffic. In addition other concerns were addressed to make the project a good neighbor of The Brooks.

Estero--County Projects In The Pipeline

Estero takes great pride in its achievements and we continue to push forward. For example we are currently working with the County on several other issues that will have a impact. These include:

Land Development Code changes that, if approved, will:

Establish additional "Overlay districts" for commercial development along US 41 and Sandy Lane subject to review by the Community Appearance Committee.

Establish signage standards for all commercial properties in Estero. If adopted in their present form they will make Estero the first community in southwest Florida where all future signage will be "monument" signs. New billboards, pole and pylon signs, off site advertising signs, electronic signs and most temporary signage will be prohibited.

Obtaining approval for Sandy Lane to be constructed as soon as possible as a community friendly, four lane road with underground drainage, extensive landscaping, and sidewalks and bike paths away from the roadway between Corkscrew Road and the Bonita Springs boundary. The developers of Coconut Point are prepared to pay the cost of constructing the additional two lanes not required by the current long range road plan. This road improvement will provide relief for both US 41 and Three Oaks Parkway once the Coconut Point project is up and operating in late 2005. It may also be used to serve as the western entrance to the Estero Community Park.
Obtaining County support for funding one or more U. S. Corp of Engineer project review positions in order to accelerate approval of county road projects, especially Three Oaks Parkway.

Efforts to incorporate Estero now will undoubtedly have a negative impact upon our excellent relationship with Lee County. It is hard to imagine an Estero municipal government that could better serve the needs of Estero citizens than what Lee County is presently providing. This may not always be true, but as the saying goes "If it ain't broke don't fix it".

The Annexation Referendum

If we are able to work with the County over the next two years as effectively as we have these past few years, then Bonita Springs will face an impossible task if it tries to "cherry-pick" portions of Estero for annexation. We fully expect to continue along this road to excellence. We didn't get the "Best Community Planning Award" from the Florida Planning and Zoning Association for nothing.

Estero's 2002 Permitted Housing Unit Growth

During October, 231 housing units were permitted in Estero with a total building value of over $60 million. Year to date 1,355 housing units have been permitted in Estero down from about 1,860 each of the last two years.

Even with the slowdown, Estero has produced 27% of the residential building permit value, excluding land, for all of unincorporated Lee County. Estero's share of the building value of all permitted construction year to date is 23%.

The value of residential housing units permitted in Estero thus far this year is more than double that of Bonita Springs, $248 million to $119 million. Estero's year to date permitted commercial building value is only 35% as large as Bonita's. Overall the building value for all kinds of properties permitted in Estero during 2002 exceeds Bonita Springs by 44%.

Estero's Population Continues to Grow Rapidly---

In 33 months Estero's population has increased by a whopping 75%.

In Florida two measures of population are important to communities:

The number of full time or permanent residents. This measure is important because many state and federal funding programs use it to allocate funds and because it is used to determine how much political representation an area shall have. These are residents counted by the census or comparable thereto.
The total population including seasonal residents or "snowbirds". This measure is important because most governmental services must have the capacity to serve this larger population even through those services are not needed year round.

Permanent Residents

The University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) estimates the population of all Florida municipalities and counties as of April 1 each year so that state funding for local governments are apportioned fairly between censuses. BEBR did not do a 2001 estimate for Estero because we are not a municipality but they have shared with us their procedures so that we could make comparable estimates.

In addition to residential building permit data, the BEBR relies upon two important 2000 census factors to estimate a community's population.

Factor 1: Housing Occupancy Rate -- determined by dividing the total number of census households into the number of housing units identified by the census takers. When the census was taken in April 2000 Estero had 7,345 housing units but only 4,608 households for an occupancy rate of 62.7%. Estero's other 2,737 housing units presumably were then occupied by seasonal residents (snowbirds) who did not seek to be counted in Florida
Factor 2: Occupancy Rate Per House -- In April 2000 Estero had 9,503 persons living in 4,608 households for an average of 2.06 persons per household.
Finally, the number of new housing units built and occupied is the key variable that BEBR uses to project the population growth of a community.

Thus, Estero's April 2001 permanent population is determined by adding the 2000 census population to the product of the following multiplication: the number of new housing units built and occupied during the intervening year(s) times the occupancy rate times the average persons per household. Using this formula Estero's permanent population increased in two year from 9,503 to 15,049 -- an increase of 5,546 full time residents or 58%. Based upon residential permits that have already been issued Estero's full time population on December 31, 2002 will be 16,591, an increase of over 7,000 full time residents, or 75%, in just 33 months.

Total Population

Estero's April 2000 snowbird population was not measured by the Census Bureau but can be estimated using their data. The census found that Estero contained 2,737 seasonal housing units, or 37.3% of all housing units, in April 2000. Assuming that Estero's snowbird households are the same size as its full time households (2.06 persons), Estero's seasonal population (snowbirds) in April 2000 was 5,638.

Estero's April 2002 snowbird population is estimated by adding those 5,638 persons to the product of the number of new residential units built and occupied by seasonal residents during the intervening years times the average persons per household. On this basis Estero's snowbird population increased during the first two years since the census 3,299 persons, or 59%. Based upon the residential building permits already issued, the snowbird population of Estero will exceed 9,500 on December 31, 2002.

Estero Population Growth, 2000 --2002

Population	April 1, 2000	April 1, 2001	December 31, 2001	December 31, 2002
Permanent Residents	9,503	12,062	14,377	16,591
Snowbirds	5,638	7,161	8,538	9,855
Total	15,141	19,223	22,915	26,446

The above Table shows that Estero's total population has grown in 33 months from just over 15,000 to nearly 26,500, or 75%.

Five Year Estero Population Projection

Effective community planning requires reasonably accurate population forecasts because population growth precedes community commercial and retail investment; it creates the need for roads and other public infrastructure and the funds necessary to finance it.

Summary of Results

Five years from now (12-31-07) Estero's permanent population is likely to range from a low of 23,200 to a high of 24,700 persons. This is an increase of 41% to 50% from our estimate of Estero's present population. By that time Estero's total population, including "snowbirds", will range from 37,000 to 39,400

Background and Definitions

Toward this end we have worked with the Estero Fire Rescue District and the Lee County Community Development Department to develop information that will result in reasonable population estimates for Estero. The estimates rely in part on the 2000 Census information; a housing survey conducted by the Fire District in December 1999; the Estero building permit reporting system developed by Lee County for the Fire District and discussions with people knowledgeable about development progress in Estero's residential communities. Ultimately it is the number of new housing units that is the most accurate predictor of Estero's population growth.

Status of Residential Communities

There are three kinds of residential communities. They are:

Fully developed communities
Active residential developments--those that are currently under development, and
Inactive planned residential developments--those that have been zoned but are not yet under development.

Based upon Estero building permits issued by the County during 2000, 2001 and 2002 there have been 19 significant active residential developments during this period. These developments accounted for virtually all the 5,800 housing units permitted during this period. About 100 additional housing units were permitted in all other sections of Estero during this period. These 19 communities are authorized to build another 4,480 housing units. Thus if construction in these communities continued at the 2002 rate, over 1,600 permitted units per year, all Estero's active residential developments would be fully built out in 2005. That will not happen because some of them are just getting started while others are nearing completion.

In addition there are eleven (11) inactive planned residential developments in Estero with authority to build 7,069 housing units.

Housing Units Developed During the Next Five Years

Analysis of the status of each residential community and the rate at which housing units are being permitted in each community during the last three years indicates that the most likely number of new housing units to be developed and occupied in Estero during the next five years ending on December 31, 2007 is about 5,800 units. Of that total over 3,700 of the units will be developed in active residential developments, with the balance, about 2,100 units, to be developed in currently inactive planned residential communities.